Russia: 26 years of Putin’s power. EU Parliament: “Permanent war and demographic decline.”
Twenty-six years of nearly uninterrupted power, five presidential terms, open or hybrid wars, and a country transformed economically, politically, and socially. This is the picture painted by a study published by Anna Caprile and Eric Pichon for the European Parliament Research Service (EPRS), which analyzes Russia under Vladimir Putin through economic data, demographic indicators, and international indices on democracy and civil rights.
According to the report, Putin has led the Russian Federation since December 31, 1999, with the formal exception of his tenure as Prime Minister between 2008 and 2012. During this timeframe, Russia has been involved in armed conflicts for 21 years: from the war in Chechnya and the annexation of Crimea in 2014 to the current conflict with Ukraine that began in February 2022.
Economy: military growth and signs of crisis.
On the economic front, the study highlights how growth in the early 2000s was primarily driven by the commodities boom, creating a model heavily dependent on oil and gas. Despite Western sanctions, the economy maintained a certain degree of resilience until 2024, thanks to increased military production and high public spending; however, signs of a slowdown are now clearly evident.
According to the reported data, Russian GDP growth fell to 0.6% in 2025, while for 2026, economists predict a possible recessionary scenario. Weighing heavily on the outlook are budget deficits, the depletion of national reserves, and the inability to access international financial markets due to sanctions.
Furthermore, the study emphasizes the failed process of economic diversification: the system remains dominated by the State and large conglomerates linked to political power, with structural issues including high corruption and a heavy concentration of wealth.
Declining demographics and population flight.
One of the most alarming figures concerns the population. According to the European Parliament investigation, Russia lost approximately 2.7 million inhabitants between 2000 and 2025, and the outlook remains negative. Birth rates have fallen to the lowest levels in modern Russian history, while the fertility rate has plummeted to 1.37 children per woman.
Added to the demographic crisis are rising male mortality rates and the migratory waves of recent years. Projections indicate that the population could drop below 130 million by 2075.
Rights and Democracy: indices in decline.
The report also records a steady deterioration of democratic indicators. The cited international rankings describe Russia as a “consolidated authoritarian regime” or an “electoral autocracy,” with scores in sharp decline compared to the early 2000s.
The study documents increasing repression of dissent, with laws restricting NGOs, independent media, and academic freedom. According to the data, thousands of researchers reportedly left the country after 2022, and the number of people placed on lists of “foreign agents” or “undesirable organizations” has increased drastically.
The pivot to the East: China as primary partner.
On a geopolitical and economic level, the study highlights a radical transformation in trade relations. While in 2007 Russia was the EU’s fourth-largest trading partner, by 2025 it represents only 1.1% of European trade. Conversely, China has become Moscow’s main economic partner, accounting for nearly 40% of Russian foreign trade.
The relationship with Beijing, based primarily on Russian energy exports and the import of Chinese technology and consumer goods, is described as a fundamental pillar for Russian economic stability following the invasion of Ukraine.
A Power destined to last.
Putin, re-elected in 2024 with over 88% of the vote according to official data, can theoretically remain in power until 2036 thanks to the constitutional reform approved in 2020.
Photo kremlin.ru
